E-Mini Bears See Failed Breakout


Emini daily chart

  • The S&P 500 Futures formed a bear bar yesterday that closed at its midpoint. The bears see failed breakout from Monday’s bull inside bar.
  • The bulls see it as a pullback from Monday’s inside bar. However, the market is forming a parabolic wedge over the past 8 bars. While and reversal down will probably be minor, the market will probably pull back for a few days.
  • In general, bars like Mondays inside bar are low-probability buys, and any upside breakout like yesterday’s gap usually fails.
  • Bears will see yesterday’s bear close as a credible short in a trading range. It is a lower probability sell since the channel up is tight.
  • However, if the bears get two to their consecutive bear bars closing on their lows, traders will begin to expect a lower process and a test of the March 22nd high.
  • The market will probably get closer to the moving average over the next few days. There will probably be buyers around the moving average.
  • Overall, traders should expect and selloff to be minor, leading to sideways trading. However, if the bears can get consecutive strong trend bars, the odds of lower prices will increase. Traders will pay close attention today to see what kind of entry bar the bears can get below yesterday’s low. The bulls want to prevent the bears from getting a strong entry bar and increase the odds of buyers below.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is down 20 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The Globex market on the 60-minute chart got a second leg down after yesterday’s selloff during the first half of the U.S. Session.
  • The channel down since last night is tight, which increases the odds of lower prices.
  • As I mentioned above, the bears want to form a strong entry bar today following yesterday’s bear reversal bar.
  • Traders should be prepared for a possible bear trend day today; however, they should always expect a trading range.
  • Since the market will gap down below yesterday’s low, the bulls will buy, betting on limit order traders making money below yesterday’s bear bar. This means that yesterday’s low will be a magnet today.
  • If the bears start to get consecutive bear trend bars on the open, the odds of a bear trend from the open will increase. Even if the bears get a trend from the open, there is a 60% chance of it evolving into a trading range.
  • As I often say, most traders should wait for 6 to 12 bars before placing a trade. By waiting for this gives a trader more information on the type of day.
  • A trader can wait for a credible double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom before placing a trade. An opening swing trade often begins before the end of the second hour, following one of the patterns mentioned above.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart


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